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Argument 45
可橙 发表于 2008-10-29 18:43:30
45.The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。
The author of the editorial concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support the conclusion the author cites the reports from local hunters which indicate that the populations of arctic deer are declining, and these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. The author also points out that the arctic deer search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year, because their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough during a period of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. This argument suffers from a series of poor assumptions, which render it wholly unpersuasive as it stands.
To begin with, accurately, the reports which indicate the populations of arctic deer is declining coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, but the reports haven't indicated that the ice in Canada's arctic region melt as well. And even if the ice there has melt, that doesn't mean the arctic deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
In the second place, as the absent of evidence to prove the arctic deer are unable to search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year as their age-old always do, there is direct and persuasive evidence to justify the decline in arctic deer population is the result of the global warming trends. There is no proof to indicate the reason of decline is because the arctic deer cannot find food by moving over ice. Too many possibilities there to make the population decline, for example, the climate make them vulnerable to ill, then even dead. Or the food they live rely on is die out.
Finally, there is no evidence to justify the local hunters' reports are reliable. The author overlooks to give the justifiable static to show the population in arctic deer is really decline. The author just tells us the reports from the local hunters indicate that the populations of arctic deer are declining, without any other detail of the reports. Therefore, he is failed to convince us that the truth of the reports.
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must give enough detail of the reports to indicate the populations are actually declining. And rule out the other possibility lead to the decline except the arctic deer cannot find food. We also need more information about the deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
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